WTC Final Scenarios: Five Teams, Including Australia, South Africa, and Sri Lanka, Still Contending for a Spot
With just 20 Tests remaining in the current World Test Championship (WTC) cycle, five teams remain in contention for a place in the final. Here’s a breakdown of each team’s qualification prospects.
India
- Percent: 62.82
- Matches Remaining: One against New Zealand (home) and five against Australia (away)
After suffering two surprising defeats against New Zealand, India finds itself needing to secure victories to qualify for a third consecutive WTC final. They currently hold a slim lead over Australia at the top of the table. To guarantee a top-two finish, India must win their last Test against New Zealand in Mumbai and then beat Australia 3-2. This would bring their points percentage to 64.04%, assuming no penalties for slow over rates.
If Australia manages to win 2-0 against Sri Lanka, they would only reach 60.53% even if they win two matches against India. New Zealand would end with 57.14% if they lose in Mumbai and beat England 3-0 at home. In this scenario, South Africa would be the only team capable of surpassing India. A 2-2 series result in Australia would leave India at 60.53% compared to Australia’s 62.28%, given that India wins in Mumbai and Australia defeats Sri Lanka 2-0.
Conversely, if India loses in Mumbai, New Zealand could finish at 64.29%, but only if they sweep England 3-0. In this case, India would need four wins and a draw in Australia to secure a spot in the final, regardless of other results.
However, India could still finish in the top two with fewer wins if other contenders don’t maximize their points. For instance, if New Zealand loses in Mumbai and beats England 2-0, they would only reach 52.38%; if South Africa loses one of their five remaining Tests, they would end at 61.11%; and if Australia beats India 3-2 but draws 1-1 in Sri Lanka, their final percentage would be 60.53%.
New Zealand
- Percent: 50.00
- Matches Remaining: One against India (away) and three against England (home)
At the start of their series in India, New Zealand’s chances of reaching the final seemed bleak. However, their surprising victories have reignited their hopes. If they win all four remaining Tests, they will finish at 64.29%. While this won’t guarantee qualification, it would certainly keep them in the mix. If they lose one Test, their percentage would drop to 57.14%.
South Africa
- Percent: 47.62
- Matches Remaining: One against Bangladesh (away), two against Sri Lanka (home), and two against Pakistan (home)
If South Africa wins all five of their remaining Tests, they would finish at 69.44%, which should secure their place in the WTC final, as only one of India or Australia can exceed that figure. Four wins and a draw would leave them with 63.89%, while five wins and one loss would slightly lower their percentage to 61.11%, still leaving them in contention if other results favor them. They have a favorable schedule ahead, with home Tests against Sri Lanka and Pakistan following their ongoing series against Bangladesh.
Australia
- Percent: 62.50
- Matches Remaining: Five against India (home) and two against Sri Lanka (away)
India’s recent losses to New Zealand have bolstered Australia’s chances of reaching the final. A 3-2 series victory over India and a 1-0 win in Sri Lanka would put them at 62.28%, securing a spot ahead of India. If New Zealand fails to win, then South Africa remains the only team that could surpass Australia. To qualify without relying on other outcomes, Australia must secure five victories from their remaining seven matches.
Sri Lanka
- Percent: 55.56
- Matches Remaining: Two against South Africa (away) and two against Australia (home)
Having gained a full 24 points from their last two Tests, Sri Lanka is making a strong push for a top-two finish in this WTC cycle. Winning all four remaining Tests would bring them to 69.23%, guaranteeing a spot in the final regardless of other results. If they win three and lose one, their percentage would still leave them with a chance at 61.54%, depending on how other teams perform.
England
- Percent: 40.79
- Matches Remaining: Three against New Zealand (away)
Following two defeats in Pakistan, England’s maximum potential percentage stands at 48.86% if they sweep New Zealand, which will not be enough for a finals berth.
Pakistan
- Percent: 33.33
- Matches Remaining: Two against South Africa (away) and two against West Indies (home)
Although Pakistan has shown signs of improvement at home, it is too late to influence this WTC cycle significantly. Even if they win all four remaining Tests, they could only reach 52.38%, which wouldn’t qualify them for the final.
Bangladesh
- Percent: 30.56
- Matches Remaining: One against South Africa (home) and two against West Indies (away)
Three consecutive losses against India and South Africa have severely hurt Bangladesh’s chances. Even if they win all remaining Tests, they would only achieve 47.92%, falling short of a top-two finish.
West Indies
- Percent: 18.52
- Matches Remaining: Two against Bangladesh (home) and two against Pakistan (away)
After four series, the West Indies have only managed to accumulate 20 points out of a possible 108. Winning their last four Tests would only bring them to 43.59%, eliminating them from contention for a spot in the WTC final.
