Astronomers across the globe are closely monitoring Asteroid 2024 YR4, which has a 2% chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032.
Key Details:
- Size: Estimated between 40 and 90 meters in width—large enough to cause localized destruction.
- Speed: If an impact occurs, it would strike at a velocity of 38,000 miles per hour.
- Current Distance: As of January 31, 2025, the asteroid is approximately 30 million miles from Earth.
- Discovery: Detected on January 27, 2025, shortly after a close pass near Earth on Christmas.
- Next Observation Window: It will fade from sight in April 2025 and become visible again in mid-2028.
Potential Impact:
Experts emphasize that Asteroid 2024 YR4 does not pose an extinction-level threat. However, an impact could still cause substantial damage, particularly in densely populated areas. Possible impact zones include the eastern Pacific Ocean, South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia. Despite these concerns, astronomers believe the asteroid is more likely to strike an ocean than a city, reducing the risk of widespread destruction.
What Comes Next?
NASA and ESA’s planetary defense teams are actively tracking the asteroid using advanced telescopes, including the James Webb Space Telescope. Scientists anticipate that as they refine its trajectory, the probability of impact will likely decrease to zero.
NASA has already demonstrated the ability to deflect asteroids. The 2022 success of the kinetic impactor technique could provide a potential solution if intervention is necessary.
For now, experts advise the public to stay informed but not alarmed, as advancements in detection technology will continue to improve early warning systems for near-Earth asteroids.
