In its monthly economic update, the Ministry of Finance projected that the inflation rate would decline to 5.8%-6.8% in November, with a further decrease expected to 5.6%-6.5% by December.
The Finance Division stated, “Inflation is anticipated to further ease to 5.6%-6.5% by December 2024.”
Earlier in November, the central bank reduced interest rates by 250 basis points to stimulate the sluggish economy, following a significant drop in inflation rates.
Data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) revealed that inflation sharply decreased to 7.2% in October, down from a multi-decade high of nearly 40% in May 2023, and slightly above 6.9% in September 2024.
The report also highlighted progress in wheat crop sowing, with efforts in place to ensure timely provision of inputs to farmers at reasonable prices. However, the large-scale manufacturing (LSM) sector continued to face challenges in recovery. While year-on-year growth remained negative, month-on-month performance showed signs of improvement, particularly in key sectors such as textiles and automobiles.
The finance division reaffirmed its commitment to supporting the sector and emphasized that external stability would be key to fostering a sustained recovery, presenting a cautiously optimistic outlook for the future.
The report further noted a surplus in the current account during the first four months of FY2025, bolstering the external sector.
For November 2024, exports are expected to remain between $2.5-3.0 billion, imports between $4.5-4.9 billion, and workers’ remittances between $2.8-3.3 billion.
