China has conducted a rare test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into international waters, leading to protests from neighboring countries. The launch, which occurred on Wednesday and marked China’s first ICBM test in over 40 years, was described by Beijing as “routine” and not directed at any specific nation or target. Chinese media reported that the government had informed “relevant countries” in advance.
However, Japan stated it did not receive any warning about the launch and expressed concerns, which were echoed by Australia and New Zealand. Analysts believe the test contributes to rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific region and highlights China’s advancing long-range nuclear capabilities.
Last year, the U.S. warned that China was expanding its nuclear arsenal as part of its defense enhancements. An ICBM can reach distances exceeding 5,500 kilometers, placing the U.S. mainland and Hawaii within its striking range. Nonetheless, estimates suggest that China’s nuclear stockpile remains less than one-fifth the size of those of the U.S. and Russia, with Beijing maintaining that its nuclear capabilities are solely for deterrence.
On Wednesday, Beijing confirmed that the missile was launched at 08:44 local time (04:44 GMT) and carried a dummy warhead, landing in a designated area thought to be in the South Pacific. China’s defense ministry stated that the launch was “routine” and part of its “annual training.”
Analysts noted that the last known international ICBM test by China occurred in the 1980s, with most tests previously conducted internally, such as those in the Taklamakan Desert in Xinjiang. Nuclear missile analyst Ankit Panda indicated that while such tests are common for other nations, including the United States, they are unusual for China.
China’s ongoing nuclear modernization has already brought significant changes, and this launch suggests a potential shift in its approach. The test prompted immediate reactions from other nations, with Japan expressing “serious concern” over China’s military buildup. Australia labeled the action “destabilizing” and warned of increased risks of miscalculation in the region, while New Zealand called it “an unwelcome and concerning development.”
Panda noted that the actions were not primarily aimed at sending a political message, but they serve as a stark reminder of the rapidly changing nuclear dynamics in Asia. Other analysts view this as a wake-up call for the U.S. and its allies. Leif-Eric Easley, an international relations professor at Ewha Women’s University in South Korea, remarked that the launch indicates that any direct intervention by the U.S. in a conflict over Taiwan could expose the American homeland to potential attacks.
For U.S. allies in Asia, this “provocative test” showcases China’s capability to engage in multiple conflicts simultaneously. Timing is crucial, as tensions between China and nations like Japan, the Philippines, and Taiwan are already high. Last month, Japan deployed fighter jets after accusing a Chinese spy plane of violating its airspace, calling the incident “utterly unacceptable.”
